Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (99%)
Resolved: Oct 19, 2026, 8:39 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
No
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 20, 2026, 4:26 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes1%
No99%
NoWon
YesLost
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KalshiRules
Yet another prison market because prominent figures can't help but keep getting themselves arrested.