Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 11:51 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 80%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJul 19, 26, 8:33 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Andrew Tate be extradited by the end of the year?
Manifold MarketsAndrew Tate released from custody by which date?
PolymarketWill Andrew Tate be found guilty of rape or human trafficking in the UK?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Andrew Tate be convicted of human trafficking?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the Andrew Tate trial start? (regarding the human trafficking / organized crime charges)
Manifold MarketsWill Andrew Tate's party win a seat in the next UK election?
KalshiRules
https://www.tmz.com/2026/07/18/andrew-tristan-tate-arrested-miami/
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, Andrew Tate is physically extradited or legally transferred under custody from the United States to either the United Kingdom or Romania.
- This market resolves to NO if he is not extradited or legally transferred to either country by the deadline (including if he remains in US custody, is released on bail in the US, or if extradition proceedings are still ongoing but not completed).
- Custody Transfer: For the purposes of this market, "extradited" requires a formal legal transfer of custody to UK or Romanian officials and physical transport to either nation.
- Voluntary self-travel or deportation to another country does not count.
