Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 9:13 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 72.9%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleApr 2, 24, 5:51 AM UTCJan 1, 31, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will an active Manifold user be indicted for selling military secrets to another country before the end of 2030?
Manifold Markets🧑⚖️What crimes will active Manifold users be indicted for before the end of 2030? [ADD RESPONSES]
Manifold MarketsWho will be the first Manifold User to reach 10 million mana net worth (add your own)
Manifold MarketsWill a Manifold user reach 1 Million traders by EOY 2030
Manifold MarketsLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
PolymarketChud the Builder convicted of attempted murder?
PolymarketRules
Must have trades or questions made within the last 3 months
- See: @/strutheo/will-an-active-manifold-user-be-ind-a59ab1319466
- See: @/strutheo/what-crimes-will-active-manifold-us
