Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 72.9%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleApr 2, 24, 5:51 AM UTCJan 1, 31, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will an active Manifold user be indicted for selling military secrets to another country before the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the first Manifold User to reach 10 million mana net worth (add your own)
Manifold MarketsWill I still be an active Manifold user in 8 years (08.12.2033) ?
Manifold MarketsLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
PolymarketChud the Builder convicted of attempted murder?
PolymarketTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
PolymarketRules
Must have trades or questions made within the last 3 months
- See: @/strutheo/will-an-active-manifold-user-be-ind-a59ab1319466
- See: @/strutheo/what-crimes-will-active-manifold-us
Open markets
Crime & JusticePOLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+17.0pt65%
- Yes-17.0pt35%
- Total Vol
- $404K
- 24h Vol
- $15.4K
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Total Vol
- $11.4M
- 24h Vol
- $7.9K
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-2.0pt21%
- 20265%
- Total Vol
- $578.5K
- 24h Vol
- $6.6K
POLYMARKETAndrew Tate released from custody by which date?
- December 31-6.0pt13%
- July 31-0.1pt0%
- August 31-0.6pt0%
POLYMARKETMaduro Prison Time?
- No prison time+0.5pt42.2%
- 60++1.5pt38.2%
- 20–40-0.9pt8.8%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+1.5pt28%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 30-0.5pt7%
+3 more outcomes
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- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- James Comey charges dropped by December 31?
- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?
- Will Yale settle with DOJ over Law School admissions?
- Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will an active Manifold user be indicted for murder before the end of 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 73% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will an active Manifold user be indicted for murder before the end of 2030? resolve?
- Will an active Manifold user be indicted for murder before the end of 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is Will an active Manifold user be indicted for murder before the end of 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Must have trades or questions made within the last 3 months