Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (99%)
Resolved: Oct 13, 2026, 1:44 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 1, 2026, 5:45 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes1%
No99%
Won
Lost
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Manifold MarketsRules
Gallup began polling Americans on their beliefs about artificial intelligence in 2023, publishing their most recent results in August 2024, and September 2025.
- According to Gallup in 2024, 13% of Americans believe AI will "do more good than harm", an improvement of 3% over 2023.
- This declined in 2025, dropping to 12%.
- [image]This question resolves YES if Gallup polling for 2026 shows more Americans believe AI will do "more good than harm" than in 2024, i.e. 13% or higher.
- This question resolves NO if the results are the same (12%) or lower.
