Will Alcoa Corporation's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?
RegulationOne-OffChinaLatin AmericaCommodities2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 76.9%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleMay 4, 26, 5:53 PM UTCMay 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
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KalshiWill Alcoa Corporation's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves YES if Alcoa Corporation's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 (January 1 – December 31, 2028) exceeds 2.6 million tonnes.
- Settlement is May 31, 2029 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2028 monthly print are well-published before resolution.
- Alcoa's 2024 Aluminum segment shipments came in at 2.5–2.6 Mt with modest expansion underway at Pinjarra (Western Australia) and Alumar (Brazil).
- The 2.6 Mt strike for 2028 sits at roughly the company's run-rate; under the modest Pinjarra/Alumar ramp, 2028 production could come in slightly above this strike, making this a probability-anchored just above 50%.
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- Alcoa Corporation Q4 / full-year financial release https://news.alcoa.com/press-releases
