What are the current odds for Will AI take 50% of human jobs before 2075??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 65% as of October 31, 2026.

When does Will AI take 50% of human jobs before 2075? resolve?

Will AI take 50% of human jobs before 2075? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2075.

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria:

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 65%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 8 minutes ago

Dec 25, 24, 6:11 AM UTCJan 1, 75, 4:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolution Criteria:

The question will resolve to YES if at least one of the following occurs:
The broader unemployment rate (U-6) reaches 50% or higher
The labor force participation rate drops by 50% or more from its 2024 baseline of 62.5%.
In this context the LFPR should fall to 31.3% or lower.
This question is concerned with lost jobs and not the number of hours worked per week.