What are the current odds for Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2040??

Manifold Markets prices No at 96.9% as of November 2, 2026.

When does Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2040? resolve?

Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2040? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2040.

How is Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2040? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves NO if humanity is still around in 2040.

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Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2040?

GeopoliticsOne-Off13y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

No 96.9%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 31 minutes ago

Jul 5, 23, 12:05 AM UTCJan 1, 40, 5:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolves NO if humanity is still around in 2040.

Otherwise, we just have to hope that who/whatever is left resolves it correctly.

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Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2040?

Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2040?

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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

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