What are the current odds for Will a nonhuman win a Nobel Prize by 2100??

Manifold Markets prices No at 51.6% as of October 27, 2026.

When does Will a nonhuman win a Nobel Prize by 2100? resolve?

Will a nonhuman win a Nobel Prize by 2100? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2100.

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Data quality warningStale data

Data as of Oct 27, 2026, 1:24 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4

Current community forecast

No 51.6%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated yesterday

Stale

Dec 22, 23, 7:25 PM UTCJan 1, 00, 4:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Will anyone or anything that is not human (i.e. biologically a member of the human species) win any Nobel Prize by the end of 2099?

Any nonhuman animal or extraterrestrial being or AI system or deity
Corporations or other organizations created by, run by, or made up of human beings do not count.
Any Nobel Prize:
Current prizes include: physics | chemistry | physiology or medicine | literature | peace | economic sciences
Should new prizes be created, they will count toward resolution.