Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86.5%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleJul 8, 25, 11:33 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2030, wild honey bee populations are declared functionally extinct in the USA by a reputable scientific organization or governmental body. "Functionally extinct" is defined as a species whose population has declined to the point where it can no longer play a significant role in its ecosystem or sustain a viable population.
- Official declarations from organizations such as the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) or the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service will serve as the primary sources for resolution.
- If no such declaration is made by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."
