Who will outlive: Joe Biden or Donald Trump?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Who will outlive: Joe Biden or Donald Trump??

Manifold Markets prices Donald Trump at 72% as of October 28, 2026.

When does Who will outlive: Joe Biden or Donald Trump? resolve?

Who will outlive: Joe Biden or Donald Trump? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2050.

How is Who will outlive: Joe Biden or Donald Trump? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This question will resolve to the person that stays with us (alive) till later date, regardless of their age.

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POLYMARKET

Fed Decision in October?

• No change+5.5pt100%
• 25 bps decrease0%
• 25 bps increase-5.5pt0%

+2 more outcomes

Total Vol

$101.7M

24h Vol

$22.1M

KALSHI

Which party will win the U.S. House?

• Democratic Party+0.3pt91%
• Republican Party-0.3pt9.2%

Total Vol

$77.3M

24h Vol

$3.1M

KALSHI

Texas Senate winner?

• James Talarico66.5%
• Ken Paxton33.5%

Total Vol

$47.3M

24h Vol

$2.6M

KALSHI

2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?

• Democrats sweep-1.0pt62.5%
• D-House, R-Senate28.5%
• Republicans sweep8.9%

KALSHI

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

• Karen Bass+11.0pt54.5%
• Nithya Raman-10.0pt45.5%

Total Vol

$44.9M

24h Vol

$2M

KALSHI

Texas Governor winner?

• Greg Abbott-2.0pt64.5%
• Gina Hinojosa+3.0pt35.5%

Total Vol

$8.4M

24h Vol

$1.5M

• Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
• Florida Governor winner?
• 2028 Democratic presidential nominee
• South Carolina Senate winner?
• Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
• Presidential Election Winner 2028
• Iowa Senate winner?
• California Governor winner? (Person)
• Fed Decision in December?
• Which party will win the House in 2026?
• 2026 Texas Senate Race
• Minnesota Senate winner?