Who will launch the first crewed space station with functioning artificial gravity (via rotation)?

Russia / UkraineOne-OffTech Space13y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Data quality warningStale data

Data as of Jul 21, 2026, 6:30 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2

Current community forecast

US Company and/or NASA 16.1%-1.8%

Leader of 6 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 4 days ago

Stale

Jul 19, 26, 5:15 PMDec 31, 39, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

US Company and/or NASA16%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

This market resolves when the first crewed orbital space station or station module that generates artificial gravity through continuous rotation becomes operational, with a crew aboard experiencing sustained partial or full gravity produced by that rotation.

Eligible systems include rotating habitats, wheel stations, torus stations, or centrifuge modules large enough to support normal crew habitation for extended stays.
The rotation must be the primary means of generating gravity for at least part of the habitable volume.
The market resolves to the country or region of the organization primarily responsible for developing and operating the station or module.
If responsibility is genuinely shared between organizations from multiple listed options, the market resolves to "Other".
Does not count

Volume trend

$25

Jul 193d of dataJul 21

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Who will launch the first crewed space station with functioning artificial gravity (via rotation)?

Russia / UkraineOne-OffTech Space13y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Data quality warningStale data

Data as of Jul 21, 2026, 6:30 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2

Current community forecast

US Company and/or NASA 16.1%-1.8%

Leader of 6 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 4 days ago

Stale

Jul 19, 26, 5:15 PMDec 31, 39, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

US Company and/or NASA16%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

Eligible systems include rotating habitats, wheel stations, torus stations, or centrifuge modules large enough to support normal crew habitation for extended stays.
The rotation must be the primary means of generating gravity for at least part of the habitable volume.
The market resolves to the country or region of the organization primarily responsible for developing and operating the station or module.
If responsibility is genuinely shared between organizations from multiple listed options, the market resolves to "Other".
Does not count

Volume trend

$25

Jul 193d of dataJul 21

Related Markets

Year of Elon Musk's next visit to Russia

$154.3

2025: 0%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which company has the best AI Agent end of August?

$11.5K

Anthropic: 70%

POLYMARKET