Who will launch the first crewed space station with functioning artificial gravity (via rotation)?
Russia / UkraineOne-OffTechSpace13y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No artificial-gravity station launched by resolution date 28.3%Leader of 6 outcomes
No artificial-gravity station launched by resolution date 28.3%Forecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 24 minutes ago
Jul 19, 26, 5:15 PM UTCDec 31, 39, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves when the first crewed orbital space station or station module that generates artificial gravity through continuous rotation becomes operational, with a crew aboard experiencing sustained partial or full gravity produced by that rotation.
- Eligible systems include rotating habitats, wheel stations, torus stations, or centrifuge modules large enough to support normal crew habitation for extended stays.
- The rotation must be the primary means of generating gravity for at least part of the habitable volume.
- The market resolves to the country or region of the organization primarily responsible for developing and operating the station or module.
- If responsibility is genuinely shared between organizations from multiple listed options, the market resolves to "Other".
- Does not count
