Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast
Lee Harvey Oswald (acting alone) 85.5%Leader of 18 outcomes
Lee Harvey Oswald (acting alone) 85.5%Forecasters
240
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJul 3, 23, 7:46 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
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KalshiRules
Resolves to the rough consensus among non-US-state-affiliated scholars, researchers, and historians of the identity of the final orchestrator of the assassination of President John F. Kennedy at the start of 2030 (or N/A if no such consensus exists).
- "Final orchestrator" means the entity most responsible for directly initiating the chain of events that led to the assasination.
- If the CIA enlisted the mafia to help with the assassination, this will resolve 100% CIA.
- If the CIA and mafia are co-equal partners in carrying out the assasination, this will resolve 50% CIA, 50% mafia, etc.