Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast
Artemis III launch 77.5%Leader of 5 outcomes
Artemis III launch 77.5%Forecasters
16
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+0.3 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleAug 10, 24, 2:15 PM UTCSep 1, 29, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
[tweet]Update 2025-06-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the Artemis III option:
- A mission will count as Artemis III if it is officially designated as such, even if the nature of that mission changes radically from its original or current plans.
- Update 2025-09-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Starliner-2: Counts when NASA officially designates a mission as "Starliner-2".
- If no mission is designated "Starliner-2" (e.g., it's skipped or canceled), this outcome does not occur.
- New Glenn 15: Refers to the 15th flight of New Glenn (counting flights), not a specific named mission.
