Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: OpenAI (99%)
Resolved: Oct 19, 2026, 7:05 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
OpenAI
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
99%
ConsensusData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 19, 2026, 3:57 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
OpenAI99%
Google0.2%
Anthropic0.4%
Harmonic0.2%
Other0.2%
Won
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
KalshiWill OpenAI solve a new millennium prize problem by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic Claims to Solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2027?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI Claims to Solve another Millennium Prize Problem before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
PolymarketRules
Resolves to the first lab to release a solution which is subsequently verified to a previously-unsolved Clay Institute Millennium Prize problem.