Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastbefore Mar 31, 2028 82.7%Leader of 13 outcomes
Forecasters
12
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingDec 15, 25, 7:28 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Josh Shapiro be the Presidential or Vice Presidential candidate for the Democrats in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Gavin Newsom announce his run for presidency for the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce her run for presidency for the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Mark Kelly announce his run for presidency for the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsJosh Shapiro margin of victory
KalshiPhiladelphia County, Pennsylvania: Josh Shapiro vote percent
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- For each answer, resolve YES if Josh Shapiro makes an official public announcement that he is running for U.S. president in the 2028 election on or before that answer’s cutoff; resolve NO otherwise. “before [date]” is treated as on or before 11:59:59 pm Eastern Time on that date.
- e.g. if the announcement occurs on Dec 15, 2027, the "the named outcome" AND "the named outcome" options resolve YES.
- Acceptable evidence (use the earliest timestamp across sources):
- FEC Form 2 (Statement of Candidacy) filed for a 2028 presidential run.
- An explicit statement by Shapiro or an authorized spokesperson that he is running for president in 2028 (e.g., on his verified social accounts or official site).
