Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastAGI is used in longevity research, but doesn't make significant advances 74.7%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
46
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleApr 16, 24, 5:26 PM UTCJan 2, 40, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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AGI is currently generally expected to appear some time in 2030s: @/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708
- I would like to explore whether AGI will have any significant effect on longevity research and if no, then why.
- Here are some definitions of things mentioned in the options:
- AGI — and AI system, capable of autonomously doing any tasks involved in scientific research (since this question is about research)
- Significant advances in longevity — increasing the life-expectancy at birth by at least 2x, to at least 160 years.
- Whether AGI is used in longevity research — yes if some notable papers in the field are fully written by AI or some procedures are fully developed by AI.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What will be true about AGI and longevity in 2040??
- Manifold Markets prices AGI is used in longevity research, but doesn't make significant advances at 75% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does What will be true about AGI and longevity in 2040? resolve?
- What will be true about AGI and longevity in 2040? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2040.
- How is What will be true about AGI and longevity in 2040? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: AGI is currently generally expected to appear some time in 2030s: @/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708