4. Discourse about AGI and superintelligence will become less fashionable and less common.
One-OffAI3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 60%
Forecasters
26
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Dec 28, 25, 11:25 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will be true about the first AGI that becomes accessible to everyone? [ADD MORE]
Manifold MarketsWhat will be true about AGI and longevity in 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWill Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRules
All these predictions are taken from Forbes/Rob Toews' "10 AI Predictions For 2026".
- For the 2025 predictions you can find them here, and their resolution here.
- You can find all the markets under the tag [2026 Forbes AI predictions].
- Note that I will resolve to whatever Forbes/Rob Toews say in their resolution article for 2026's predictions, even if I or others disagree with his decision.
- I might bet in this market, as I have no power over the resolution.
- Coming into 2025, expectations about AI’s trajectory and the timeline to artificial general intelligence were sky-high.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-6.0pt63.4%
- 2027-12.5pt29.7%
- 2026-2.5pt6.9%
- Total Vol
- $262.9K
- 24h Vol
- $176.7K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+0.5pt85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-2.3pt57.7%
- ChatGPT+1.4pt26.9%
- Grok-2.4pt5.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+6.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+7.0pt9%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt79.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt11.1%
- Gemini2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $405.1K
- 24h Vol
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for 4. Discourse about AGI and superintelligence will become less fashionable and less common.?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 60% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does 4. Discourse about AGI and superintelligence will become less fashionable and less common. resolve?
- 4. Discourse about AGI and superintelligence will become less fashionable and less common. is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is 4. Discourse about AGI and superintelligence will become less fashionable and less common. settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: All these predictions are taken from Forbes/Rob Toews' "10 AI Predictions For 2026".