Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast≥3x 31.8%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
54
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleJan 16, 26, 8:50 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This market matches Developer Productivity: METR Uplift Study from the AI 2026 Forecasting Survey by AI Digest.
- See other manifold questions here
- [image]Resolution criteria
- Resolves to the speedup multiple (time_taken_by_developers_without_AI / time_taken_by_developers_with_AI) reported by the most recent METR uplift study published in 2026 using the same or clearly comparable methodology.
- If METR reports percent change in time taken instead (time_taken_by_developers_with_AI / time_taken_by_developers_without_AI - 1) as they did for their 2025 study, we will convert using: speedup = 1 / (1 + percent_change_in_time_taken).
- If no METR uplift study is published in 2026, this question's outcome will be marked ambiguous.