What is the risk-free interest rate on Manifold, now that loans are ~~gone~~ back?
FedOne-OffMacro & Economy4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Resolves No at end of 2026 1%Leader of 6 outcomes
Resolves No at end of 2026 1%Forecasters
32
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJul 6, 24, 6:53 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurUS basic interest rate at the end of 2026
FutuurRules
These markets resolve No on popular market resolution dates, so the percentage of these markets show the opportunity cost of money for markets resolving on those dates.
- There are existing markets for this already, but they were created while Manifold was giving loans for long term markets, which caused interest rates to be much lower.
- And there is no incentive to correct them by buying Yes unless you think other traders will need to liquidate their positions to free up capital, so they do not reflect the current risk-free interest rate.
