Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast5 87.3%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
10
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleApr 25, 26, 5:18 AM UTCJul 2, 27, 5:04 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Is Claude Mythos 5 an alignment faker like Opus 3?
Manifold MarketsWhich of the following will be true about the rumored “Claude Mythos”?
Manifold MarketsWhich AI model series will reach the highest version number by 12/31/2026?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolves to the version number (or other specifier, if used) for the first model Anthropic publicly releases which has "Mythos" in the name.
- For example, if the first publicly released Mythos model is "Claude 7 Mythos" this would resolve to "7".
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Version number/specifier of first public Claude Mythos model?
- Manifold Markets prices 5 at 87% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Version number/specifier of first public Claude Mythos model resolve?
- Version number/specifier of first public Claude Mythos model is scheduled to resolve on July 2, 2027.
- How is Version number/specifier of first public Claude Mythos model settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves to the version number (or other specifier, if used) for the first model Anthropic publicly releases which has "Mythos" in the name.