Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastIt scores at least 50% on SWE-Apex (3rd party evaluation) 100%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
49
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleMar 27, 26, 4:39 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 5:29 AM UTC
Trends
100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which of the following will be true in Season 3 of The Pitt?
Manifold MarketsVersion number/specifier of first public Claude Mythos model
Manifold MarketsIs Claude Mythos 5 an alignment faker like Opus 3?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRules
https://fortune.com/2026/03/26/anthropic-says-testing-mythos-powerful-new-ai-model-after-data-leak-reveals-its-existence-step-change-in-capabilities/
- Resolves NA if no model that appears to be the one mentioned here is released by Anthropic by Jan 1, 2027
- Update 2026-03-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The API/max plan availability answer will resolve 30 days after release
- All other answers will resolve after the model is released and relevant information is revealed
- Update 2026-04-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "Model released" requires the model to be released to the public (not just limited access like Project Glasswing).
- Update 2026-06-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A name like "Claude Mythos 5" (i.e., with a version number appended) would still count as being called "Claude Mythos" on release.
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which of the following will be true about the rumored “Claude Mythos”??
- Manifold Markets prices It scores at least 50% on SWE-Apex (3rd party evaluation) at 100% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Which of the following will be true about the rumored “Claude Mythos”? resolve?
- Which of the following will be true about the rumored “Claude Mythos”? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Which of the following will be true about the rumored “Claude Mythos”? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: https://fortune.com/2026/03/26/anthropic-says-testing-mythos-powerful-new-ai-model-after-data-leak-reveals-its-existence-step-change-in-capabilities/