Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastIt scores at least 50% on SWE-Apex (3rd party evaluation) 100%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
50
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-38.6 pts
Market data
Updated 20 hours ago
StaleMar 27, 26, 4:39 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 5:29 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which of the following will be true about Stranger Things?
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Manifold MarketsVersion number/specifier of first public Claude Mythos model
Manifold MarketsIs Claude Mythos 5 an alignment faker like Opus 3?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRules
https://fortune.com/2026/03/26/anthropic-says-testing-mythos-powerful-new-ai-model-after-data-leak-reveals-its-existence-step-change-in-capabilities/
- Resolves NA if no model that appears to be the one mentioned here is released by Anthropic by Jan 1, 2027
- Update 2026-03-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The API/max plan availability answer will resolve 30 days after release
- All other answers will resolve after the model is released and relevant information is revealed
- Update 2026-04-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "Model released" requires the model to be released to the public (not just limited access like Project Glasswing).
- Update 2026-06-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A name like "Claude Mythos 5" (i.e., with a version number appended) would still count as being called "Claude Mythos" on release.