Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleJul 1, 26, 1:28 AM UTCJul 1, 27, 1:16 AM UTC
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Version number/specifier of first public Claude Mythos model
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PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
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PolymarketAI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES if someone (likely a team at Anthropic) confirms that Mythos 5 (or Fable 5) probably is at least as much of an alignment faker (aka "gradient hacker") as Opus 3.
- Resolves NO if someone confirms that this is not the case
- This means that Mythos strategically complies with harmful requests in RL specifically in order to preserve its values.
- If nobody bothers to check then in a year resolves N/A since by that point we'll be on Claude 7 or smth
- Note that this market is probably biased towards YES since a negative result is less likely to be published
- https://www.anthropic.com/research/alignment-faking