Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJul 1, 26, 1:28 AM UTCJul 1, 27, 1:16 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Version number/specifier of first public Claude Mythos model
Manifold MarketsWhich of the following will be true about the rumored “Claude Mythos”?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if someone (likely a team at Anthropic) confirms that Mythos 5 (or Fable 5) probably is at least as much of an alignment faker (aka "gradient hacker") as Opus 3.
- Resolves NO if someone confirms that this is not the case
- This means that Mythos strategically complies with harmful requests in RL specifically in order to preserve its values.
- If nobody bothers to check then in a year resolves N/A since by that point we'll be on Claude 7 or smth
- Note that this market is probably biased towards YES since a negative result is less likely to be published
- https://www.anthropic.com/research/alignment-faking