Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastGPT (OpenAI) 78.3%+10.1ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
5
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+11.3 pts
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleNov 21, 25, 2:02 AMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Rules
Resolves to whoever releases a model with the highest version number in the name, including sub-versions, by the end of 2026.
- Doesn’t count if someone releases a model with a number that isn’t a version number. “Grok 69” would not count. “GPT-6-preview” would count.
- The model must be publicly accessible.
- If there’s a tie, resolves evenly split among tied companies.
- Update 2025-11-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Version number comparison: If there is ambiguity in comparing version numbers (e.g., 5.9 vs 5.11), the creator will ask each model how to resolve the market and resolve to the average of their opinions.
Open markets
AI
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- October 31+0.1pt99%
- September 30-0.7pt98%
- September 25-0.3pt98%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
- 24h Vol
- $539.3K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-3.2pt58.6%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt24%
- Grok+1.5pt7.7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.1M
POLYMARKETGPT-6 released by which date?
- October 31,+9.2pt100%
- November 30,+6.8pt100%
- December 31,+5.5pt100%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETOpenAI's Astra released on?
- September 4+34.9pt44%
- September 24+21.4pt23%
- September 17+21.1pt22%
+27 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude-10.0pt76.5%
- ChatGPT+6.0pt16.7%
- Gemini+2.0pt2.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $173.4K
KALSHIWhen will OpenAI release GPT-6?
- Before Sep 16, 2026+14.0pt99%
- Before Oct 1, 2026+9.0pt99%
- Before Nov 1, 2026+6.0pt99%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703K
- Which week will OpenAI release Astra?
- When will OpenAI release Astra?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- AI capability growth this year?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- When will any company achieve AGI?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which AI model series will reach the highest version number by 12/31/2026??
- Manifold Markets prices GPT (OpenAI) at 78% as of September 3, 2026.
- When does Which AI model series will reach the highest version number by 12/31/2026? resolve?
- Which AI model series will reach the highest version number by 12/31/2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Which AI model series will reach the highest version number by 12/31/2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves to whoever releases a model with the highest version number in the name, including sub-versions, by the end of 2026.