Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (99%)
Resolved: Aug 19, 2026, 8:38 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastYes 99%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 21 hours ago
StaleJun 18, 26, 4:28 AMAug 19, 26, 8:38 PM
Probability Timeline
Yes99%
No1%
99%
1%
Rules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
Middle East
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-1.8pt66%
- October 31-9.0pt41%
- September 30-3.0pt26%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $18M
- 24h Vol
- $401K
POLYMARKETUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- December 31-3.0pt8%
- November 30-2.0pt6%
- October 31-1.0pt4%
+6 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Before Jul 1, 2027+2.0pt47%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-2.0pt40%
- Before Jan 1, 2027-4.0pt24%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIUS-Iran nuclear deal?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-4.0pt36.7%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-1.0pt22.4%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt11.2%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- August 22+1.1pt98%
- August 2595%
- August 31-0.5pt86%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by which date?
- August 310%
- August 150%
- Total Vol
- $22.7M
- 24h Vol
- $118.3K
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Al-Riyadh vs Al Nassr
- Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by which date?
- Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will Iran target a Arab country on?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US/Israel strike on Iran by end of 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 99% as of August 20, 2026.
- When does US/Israel strike on Iran by end of 2030? resolve?
- US/Israel strike on Iran by end of 2030? is scheduled to resolve on August 19, 2026.