Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86.5%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 22 hours ago
StaleAug 7, 25, 9:01 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
The U.S. government is considering a major overhaul of the patent fee model.
- According to The Wall Street Journal, Commerce Department officials are weighing a plan that would charge patent holders 1% to 5% of a patent’s overall value annually—departing from the traditional fixed-fee system in place for over 235 years.
- If implemented, this change could massively increase costs for companies like IBM, Apple, and Samsung, which hold thousands of high-value patents across AI, semiconductors, and biotech.
- Resolution Criteria:
- This market will resolve “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, the U.S. federal government enacts a law or regulation that introduces a variable annual fee based on a patent’s value (e.g., a percentage of assessed or declared value) instead of—or in addition to—the traditional fixed-fee structure.
- The new pricing model must be active and enforceable (not just proposed) before the resolution date.
Open markets
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $105.9M
- 24h Vol
- $1.9M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $662.8K
- 24h Vol
- $55.1K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $417.9K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+3.0pt54.5%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.5%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,900+1.0pt82%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $92.7K
- 24h Vol
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+5.0pt86%
- Above 0.2%36%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $21.3K
- 24h Vol
- $8.5K
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- CPI in September
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- CPI-U index in August
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Core CPI YoY - August 2026
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US Patent System gets a price hike by 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 87% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does US Patent System gets a price hike by 2026? resolve?
- US Patent System gets a price hike by 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is US Patent System gets a price hike by 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The U.S. government is considering a major overhaul of the patent fee model.