Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 81.6%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Jul 20, 26, 3:53 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will OpenAI or Anthropic have a higher initial share price upon each of their IPOs?
Manifold MarketsWill Salesforce announce a sale to a major AI/tech company within 365 days of the first OpenAI or Anthropic listing?
Manifold MarketsUS government uses live ammunition on protestors before end of presidential term?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump deport, imprison, denaturalize, or attack Jack Smith using the powers of the US government?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize?
PolymarketWill OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
KalshiRules
Resolves YES iff the US government nationalizes either OpenAI or Anthropic (or both) by 11:59pm December 31st 2028.
- 'Nationalize' means either the US government owns >50% of the firm's equity with voting rights (by whatever means) or USG takes over operations at the firm using some power like eminent domain or exercising the Defense Production Act.
- Update 2026-07-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A US Sovereign Wealth Fund owning >50% of voting equity in OpenAI or Anthropic would count as US government ownership for the purposes of this market.