Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 54.7%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJun 29, 26, 1:14 PM UTCJul 30, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
PolymarketWhat will Tyler Robinson be convicted of?
Manifold MarketsChud the Builder convicted of attempted murder?
PolymarketWill Tyler Robinson be alive on December 31st, 2026?
Manifold MarketsTyler Robinson Sentence? (Ultimate Result)
Manifold MarketsLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
PolymarketRules
Tyler Robinson is accused of killing Charlie Kirk in September of 2025.
- If Robinson is convicted of any homicide or murder charge in the ongoing case versus the state of Utah, then this will be resolved as yes.
- Conversely, if a plea deal is reached or if the relevant charges are dropped, then it will resolve as a "no".
- If a mistrial is declared, then the question will still be active until the deadline.
- Appeals and other motions will not be considered.
- The actual verdict issued by the court will be the final say.
Open markets
Crime & JusticePOLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+17.0pt65%
- Yes-17.0pt35%
- Total Vol
- $404K
- 24h Vol
- $15.4K
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Total Vol
- $11.4M
- 24h Vol
- $7.9K
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-2.0pt21%
- 20265%
- Total Vol
- $578.5K
- 24h Vol
- $6.6K
POLYMARKETAndrew Tate released from custody by which date?
- December 31-6.0pt13%
- July 31-0.1pt0%
- August 31-0.6pt0%
POLYMARKETMaduro Prison Time?
- No prison time+0.5pt42.2%
- 60++1.5pt38.2%
- 20–40-0.9pt8.8%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+1.5pt28%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 30-0.5pt7%
+3 more outcomes
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- Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
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- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?
- Will Yale settle with DOJ over Law School admissions?
- Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Tyler Robinson convicted of murder by July 31st 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 55% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Tyler Robinson convicted of murder by July 31st 2027? resolve?
- Tyler Robinson convicted of murder by July 31st 2027? is scheduled to resolve on July 30, 2027.
- How is Tyler Robinson convicted of murder by July 31st 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Tyler Robinson is accused of killing Charlie Kirk in September of 2025.