Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 12:10 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Prison for life without possibility of parole 68.5%Leader of 7 outcomes
Prison for life without possibility of parole 68.5%Forecasters
140
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleSep 16, 25, 9:15 PM UTCSep 16, 30, 9:14 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Tyler Robinson Sentence (first result)?
Manifold MarketsTyler Robinson executed to death penalty?
Manifold MarketsTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
PolymarketWill Tyler Robinson be alive on December 31st, 2026?
Manifold MarketsTyler Robinson sentenced to death by December 31, 2026
Manifold MarketsTrump out as President before 2027?
PolymarketRules
Resolves based on a consensus of reliable reports.
- Resolves when he physically begins serving a prison sentence or is executed, not at the initial sentencing announcement.
- If he is acquitted in the first sentencing, I will wait for the appeals.
- If he commits suicide before sentencing, this market will resolve to N/A. If there are options I should add, let me know and I can add them.
