Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastPrison for life without possibility of parole 43.8%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
15
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleSep 18, 25, 11:47 PM UTCSep 18, 27, 11:40 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Tyler Robinson convicted of murder by July 31st 2027?
Manifold MarketsTyler Robinson Sentence? (Ultimate Result)
Manifold MarketsTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
PolymarketWill Tyler Robinson be alive on December 31st, 2026?
Manifold MarketsLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
PolymarketNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketRules
Resolves based on the verdict handed down in the first trial, without regard to appeals or other later outcomes.
- Plea deal results included, this does not require the case to go to trial.
- Inspired by @/realDonaldTrump/tyler-robinson-sentence but intended to be shorter timeframe and cleaner.
- "Other" includes weird but technically possible results like fine or community service or other guilty pleas that result in punishment but no jail time.
- "the named outcome" includes mistrials, Robinson dying before a result, or other outcomes that do not produce a result.
- This market will not resolve n/a.
Open markets
Crime & JusticePOLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+17.0pt65%
- Yes-17.0pt35%
- Total Vol
- $404K
- 24h Vol
- $15.4K
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Total Vol
- $11.4M
- 24h Vol
- $7.9K
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-2.0pt21%
- 20265%
- Total Vol
- $578.5K
- 24h Vol
- $6.6K
POLYMARKETAndrew Tate released from custody by which date?
- December 31-6.0pt13%
- July 31-0.1pt0%
- August 31-0.6pt0%
POLYMARKETMaduro Prison Time?
- No prison time+0.5pt42.2%
- 60++1.5pt38.2%
- 20–40-0.9pt8.8%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+1.5pt28%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 30-0.5pt7%
+3 more outcomes
- Who will be arrested in 2026?
- Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
- What will Brett Kavanaugh say during his Notre Dame Lecture?
- Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- James Comey charges dropped by December 31?
- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?
- Will Yale settle with DOJ over Law School admissions?
- Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Tyler Robinson Sentence (first result)??
- Manifold Markets prices Prison for life without possibility of parole at 44% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Tyler Robinson Sentence (first result)? resolve?
- Tyler Robinson Sentence (first result)? is scheduled to resolve on September 18, 2027.
- How is Tyler Robinson Sentence (first result)? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves based on the verdict handed down in the first trial, without regard to appeals or other later outcomes.