Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastPrison for life without possibility of parole 43.8%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
15
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleSep 18, 25, 11:47 PM UTCSep 18, 27, 11:40 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolves based on the verdict handed down in the first trial, without regard to appeals or other later outcomes.
- Plea deal results included, this does not require the case to go to trial.
- Inspired by @/realDonaldTrump/tyler-robinson-sentence but intended to be shorter timeframe and cleaner.
- "Other" includes weird but technically possible results like fine or community service or other guilty pleas that result in punishment but no jail time.
- "the named outcome" includes mistrials, Robinson dying before a result, or other outcomes that do not produce a result.
- This market will not resolve n/a.
