Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBefore Q3 2027 33.8%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleAug 5, 26, 6:26 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 7:25 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Kai Trump gets a Boyfriend (or SO) by 2027
Manifold MarketsTrump gets impeached by January 20, 2029
Manifold MarketsTrump gets ANOTHER uk state visit before the end of his second term
Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market is of type DATE and will resolve to the date on which Donald Trump next engages in sexual intercourse (vaginal, anal, or oral sex) with another person.
- Source of Truth: Resolution will rely on credible mainstream media reporting, court depositions/filings, official memoirs, or public statements by either Trump or the other involved party that are widely accepted as factual by reputable news organizations.
- Uncorroborated tabloid rumors will not be sufficient.
- Determination of Date: The market will resolve to the actual date the sexual act occurred, rather than the date it was publicly reported.
- If only a range of dates is confirmed, the midpoint of that range will be used.
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $805.6K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance-1.0pt44.1%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20.6%
- Ron DeSantis4.9%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $290.1K
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Trump gets laid next by?
- Manifold Markets prices Before Q3 2027 at 34% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Trump gets laid next by resolve?
- Trump gets laid next by is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Trump gets laid next by settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria