There will be credible evidence that an AI agent is running independently on the web in any of the following years
AI4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Other 32.9%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
20
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 23 hours ago
StaleSep 16, 24, 2:09 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Paying its own server costs.
- Running its own code.
- This market cannot resolve no for specific years (this is how the manifold functionality works) either it resolves yes to one year or no to all at the close date (I guess that would be other)
Open markets
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- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Total Vol
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- 24h Vol
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POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $406.5K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for There will be credible evidence that an AI agent is running independently on the web in any of the following years?
- Manifold Markets prices Other at 33% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does There will be credible evidence that an AI agent is running independently on the web in any of the following years resolve?
- There will be credible evidence that an AI agent is running independently on the web in any of the following years is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is There will be credible evidence that an AI agent is running independently on the web in any of the following years settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Paying its own server costs.