Current community forecast
No 71%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJan 23, 26, 6:04 PM UTCJan 3, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Tesla sell Optimus robots to the public by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill 100K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2028?
Manifold Markets[Metaculus] Will Tesla be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Tesla FSD (supervised) be widely available in the EU?
Manifold MarketsX banned in any European country by December 31?
PolymarketRules
Today at the WEF in Davos, Elon Musk announced that Tesla plans to sell Optimus humanoid robots to the public by the end of 2027.
- This market exists to track that predication.
- https://www.axios.com/2026/01/22/elon-musk-tesla-optimus-robots
- https://www.cbsnews.com/news/elon-musk-davos-world-economic-forum/
- This market resolves YES if Tesla offers the Optimus robots for sale to the general public (in the US, the EU, or comparably sized set of markets) and completes more than one such sale to a non-Tesla-affiliated buyer, including delivering the robot (no "pay today deliver never" FSD-style shenanigans).
- If the robots are claimed to be out for delivery at market close, resolution will be paused to await their unboxing.