Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 88.7%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleJan 22, 26, 9:54 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Tesla sells humanoid robots to the public in 2027
Manifold MarketsWill there be over 10,000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a million Optimus robots by 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?
PolymarketBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiRules
Elon Musk says it will "probably" happen https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-22/tesla-aims-to-sell-optimus-robots-to-public-next-year-musk-says
Open markets
TechKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-23.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-9.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $682.4K
- 24h Vol
- $661.4K
KALSHIGuyana Amazon Warriors vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons
- Guyana Amazon Warriors-3.0pt60.4%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons+3.0pt39.6%
- Total Vol
- $654.7K
- 24h Vol
- $626.1K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+43.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $504.6K
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-2.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-45.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+7.0pt34.3%
- 160-179+2.0pt23.8%
- 200-219-1.0pt19.1%
+23 more outcomes
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Tesla sell Optimus robots to the public by the end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 89% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Tesla sell Optimus robots to the public by the end of 2027? resolve?
- Will Tesla sell Optimus robots to the public by the end of 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Will Tesla sell Optimus robots to the public by the end of 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Elon Musk says it will "probably" happen https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-22/tesla-aims-to-sell-optimus-robots-to-public-next-year-musk-says