Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 93.7%
Forecasters
130
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 32 minutes ago
Oct 13, 24, 9:55 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 1:29 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Tesla officially report building 10,000+ Optimus robots in 2026 (1/5 of its own 50k-100k target)?
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KalshiRules
“My prediction is next year we’ll have over a thousand, maybe a few thousand, Optimus robots working at Tesla.”
- https://x.com/SmokeAwayyy/status/1801400924096839732
- [tweet]This was a prediction made during the Tesla 2024 Annual Stockholder Meeting.
- I take "working" to mean autonomously deployed in factories and performing productive labor.
- Update 2025-06-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified their interpretation of productive labor:
- Robots dancing as entertainers for the human factory workforce would be considered as performing productive labor.
Open markets
TechKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-23.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-9.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $682.4K
- 24h Vol
- $661.4K
KALSHIGuyana Amazon Warriors vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons
- Guyana Amazon Warriors-3.0pt60.4%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons+3.0pt39.6%
- Total Vol
- $654.7K
- 24h Vol
- $626.1K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+43.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $504.6K
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-2.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-45.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+7.0pt34.3%
- 160-179+2.0pt23.8%
- 200-219-1.0pt19.1%
+23 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be over 10,000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 94% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will there be over 10,000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2027? resolve?
- Will there be over 10,000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will there be over 10,000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: “My prediction is next year we’ll have over a thousand, maybe a few thousand, Optimus robots working at Tesla.”