What are the current odds for Temple mount controlled by a Jewish group?

Manifold Markets prices No at 68% as of October 19, 2026.

When does Temple mount controlled by a Jewish group resolve?

Temple mount controlled by a Jewish group is scheduled to resolve on July 1, 2045.

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Currently it's controlled by Islam which has a mosque there.

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 68%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Lagging

Nov 9, 23, 6:20 PM UTCJul 1, 45, 6:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Currently it's controlled by Islam which has a mosque there.

This is about whether this froup gains control, at least long enough to begin construction of their own building on top, or other building or deconstruction activities.
If there is divided control it counts if they have at least 50% of the top flat surface area visible in the image.
By mid year 2045.