Tangible evidence of senior Trump officials trading on insider tariff info before 2030?
Trade PolicyOne-OffUS PoliticsRegulation3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 85.5%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 24 minutes ago
Apr 9, 25, 9:57 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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PolymarketRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if credible, tangible evidence emerges before January 1, 2030, showing that senior officials in the Trump administration traded securities based on non-public information about tariff policies.
- Evidence must come from reliable sources such as court documents, regulatory findings, credible investigative journalism, or official government investigations.
- The evidence must specifically demonstrate:
- The individual was a senior Trump administration official (or Trump)
- They traded securities (bought or sold)