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Successful Starship splashdowns before orbital launch attempt?

AIOne-OffSpace Tech5mo

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

4 0.7%-0.1%

Leader of 6 outcomes

Forecasters

15

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 18 minutes ago

Sep 3, 25, 2:11 AMJan 1, 27, 12:28 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

41%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

The minimum is 4 as i am counting flights 4, 5, 6 and 10 as successfully splashed down.

Update 2025-11-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This is not a multiple resolution market - only one option can resolve YES.
The market was temporarily resolved as 4 and then unresolved.
Update 2026-05-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Flight 11 counts as a successful splashdown.
Flight 12 appears successful but is pending confirmation from new video releases.
If Flight 12 is confirmed, the total successful splashdowns would be 6.

Volume trend

$96

Jul 252d of dataJul 26

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Rules

The minimum is 4 as i am counting flights 4, 5, 6 and 10 as successfully splashed down.

Update 2025-11-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This is not a multiple resolution market - only one option can resolve YES.
The market was temporarily resolved as 4 and then unresolved.
Update 2026-05-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Flight 11 counts as a successful splashdown.
Flight 12 appears successful but is pending confirmation from new video releases.
If Flight 12 is confirmed, the total successful splashdowns would be 6.