Current community forecast
No 97.6%
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21
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleSep 4, 25, 10:32 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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KalshiRules
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1963333192938856662
- Resolution criteria
- Resolve YES if, between 00:00 UTC Jan 1, 2026 and 23:59 UTC Dec 31, 2026, SpaceX publicly confirms at least three distinct on‑orbit propellant transfer operations between two Starship vehicles (e.g., tanker→ship, tanker→depot), with at least one vehicle identified by SpaceX as “V3”/Block 3.
- Each qualifying “time” requires an orbital rendezvous/docking and a non‑zero transfer of cryogenic propellant across a vehicle‑to‑vehicle interface.
- Internal tank‑to‑tank transfers within a single Starship do not count; suborbital or ground tests do not count.
- Transfers performed during one continuous docked session count as one operation.