Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 69.9%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMay 15, 26, 5:35 PM UTCDec 31, 39, 11:59 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that a European-designed and/or European-operated launch vehicle reaches orbit before January 1st 2040, with every propulsive stage used on that flight having previously flown on an earlier spaceflight.
- “European” means the vehicle is primarily developed or operated by an organisation headquartered in Europe, including ESA member states, the UK, EU countries, or European commercial launch companies.
- A flight counts even if the stages are not recovered again afterward, as long as all stages used to reach orbit had already flown before.
- Test flights count if they reach orbit.
- Suborbital flights do not count.
- Resolves NO if no such flight has occurred before January 1st 2040.