Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
SpaceX 58.9%Leader of 4 outcomes
SpaceX 58.9%Forecasters
3
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleOct 13, 26, 10:02 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market resolves to the launch provider responsible for the last orbital launch attempt worldwide with a liftoff time in calendar year 2026 (UTC).
- Orbital launch attempt: any launch intended to reach Earth orbit or beyond, including failures.
- Suborbital flights and tests not intended to reach orbit are excluded.
- Launch provider: the company or agency operating the launch vehicle, classified by the country where it is headquartered.
- Launch site, customer and payload don’t matter.
- For example, a Rocket Lab Electron launch from New Zealand counts as “Other American provider”.
