Current community forecast
No Starship launch in 2026, no Starship launch in 2028 65.6%Leader of 7 outcomes
No Starship launch in 2026, no Starship launch in 2028 65.6%Forecasters
24
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingSep 9, 24, 8:01 AM UTCMar 30, 29, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
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KalshiRules
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1832550322293837833
- "Starship launch" = launch to Mars
- in 2026/2028 = in the relevant launch window, no problem if the actual launch is in 2027/2029
- Update 2025-09-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A launch must actually occur (visible movement off the pad).
- The mission's stated objective must be at least to reach Martian orbit; landing also qualifies.
- A planned Mars flyby is not sufficient.