Current community forecast
No Starship launch in 2026, no Starship launch in 2028 65.6%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
24
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleSep 9, 24, 8:01 AM UTCMar 30, 29, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
0.4%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?
Manifold MarketsWill the first uncrewed Starship to Mars launch within 2 years as Elon Musk says?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX launch a Starship to Mars by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketGemini 4.0 released by which date?
PolymarketRules
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1832550322293837833
- "Starship launch" = launch to Mars
- in 2026/2028 = in the relevant launch window, no problem if the actual launch is in 2027/2029
- Update 2025-09-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A launch must actually occur (visible movement off the pad).
- The mission's stated objective must be at least to reach Martian orbit; landing also qualifies.
- A planned Mars flyby is not sufficient.
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Starship to Mars Multi-choice Matrix?
- Manifold Markets prices No Starship launch in 2026, no Starship launch in 2028 at 66% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Starship to Mars Multi-choice Matrix resolve?
- Starship to Mars Multi-choice Matrix is scheduled to resolve on March 30, 2029.
- How is Starship to Mars Multi-choice Matrix settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1832550322293837833