Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says??

Manifold Markets prices No at 97.8% as of October 30, 2026.

When does Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says? resolve?

Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says? is scheduled to resolve on March 1, 2029.

How is Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: resolve YES if a crewed starship that attempts to land on mars or orbit mars launches by the end of 2028

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KALSHI

BTC price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

• $72,000 or above98.5%
• $70,000 or above99%
• $71,000 or above98.5%

+47 more outcomes

Total Vol

$3.7M

24h Vol

$2.1M

KALSHI

Where will it rain on Oct 29, 2026?

• Indianapolis+81.0pt99.5%
• Detroit+60.0pt99.5%
• Milwaukee+35.0pt

POLYMARKET

Elon Musk # tweets October 23 - October 30, 2026?

• 320-339+23.0pt60.6%
• 340-359+1.8pt30.3%
• 300-319-10.9pt6.1%

+27 more outcomes

KALSHI

Bitcoin price at the end of 2026

• 75,000 to 79,999.99+0.5pt15.6%
• 80,000 to 84,999.99-1.9pt14.6%
• 70,000 to 74,999.99+2.3pt

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google+0.6pt99%
• Anthropic-0.8pt1%
• Alibaba0%

+18 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Elon Musk # tweets October 27 - November 3, 2026?

• 320-339+4.1pt22.6%
• 300-319+1.5pt18.6%
• 340-359+1.4pt15.7%

+27 more outcomes

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