Current community forecast
No 98%
Forecasters
35
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleSep 8, 24, 6:55 PM UTCMar 1, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the first uncrewed Starship to Mars launch within 2 years as Elon Musk says?
Manifold MarketsWill at least one crewed Starship leave Earth heading for Mars in the 2028/2029 launch window?
Manifold MarketsWill the ExoMars rover launch within its current 2028 baseline window?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
PolymarketRules
resolve YES if a crewed starship that attempts to land on mars or orbit mars launches by the end of 2028
- @/strutheo/will-the-first-uncrewed-starship-to
- @/strutheo/will-the-first-selfsustaining-base
Open markets
Tech
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 98% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says? resolve?
- Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says? is scheduled to resolve on March 1, 2029.
- How is Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: resolve YES if a crewed starship that attempts to land on mars or orbit mars launches by the end of 2028