Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 8:15 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Yes 57%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleAug 31, 26, 1:19 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Rosalind Franklin rover launch before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?
Manifold MarketsWill the first uncrewed Starship to Mars launch within 2 years as Elon Musk says?
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Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiWill two Starships dock together in orbit before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
Description:
- ESA's Rosalind Franklin rover mission (ExoMars) is currently baselined for launch in the September–December 2028 Mars transfer window, using a NASA-procured Falcon Heavy from Cape Canaveral.
- The program has slipped multiple times before (2018 → 2020 → 2022 → 2028), so this asks whether the current baseline holds.
- This market resolves YES if the Rosalind Franklin spacecraft launches on its way to Mars at any point within the 2028 Mars launch opportunity (i.e., before the window closes).
- This market resolves NO if, before the 2028 window closes, ESA or NASA officially announces the mission has slipped past the 2028 window (e.g., pushed to 2031 or later), or if the mission is cancelled, or if no launch occurs by 2028.
- Resolution source: Official statements from ESA (esa.int) and/or NASA, or a successful launch confirmed via public tracking (e.g., NASA Launch Services Program, SpaceX launch manifest).
