Will there be a significant advancement in frontier AI model architecture by end of year 2026?
AIOne-Off3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 72.8%
Forecasters
26
Question type
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingAug 14, 25, 10:55 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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KalshiRules
Follow-on from https://manifold.markets/Jasonb/will-a-gpt4-level-efficient-hrm-bas, since I'm interested in the possibility (or impossibility) of architectural innovations more broadly.
- Resolution criteria:
- The architecture must be meaningfully different from an auto-regressive transformer, either not transformer based at all, or a significant fusion of a transformer with other components.
- To clarify, something similar to incorporation of Mixture-of-Experts would not count, but diffusion based LLMs would (though they also need to meet the other criteria).
- The model must be significantly better than previous LLMs in some important aspect.
- E.g. for the same amount of training data it achieves much higher performance, or it can achieve similar performance to frontier models with far fewer parameters, or it lacks some failure mode common to current or future transformer-based LLMs.
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $154.3K
- 24h Vol
- $116.6K
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- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.5M
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- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $374.6K
- 24h Vol
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- 1480+-1.0pt66%
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- 1500+-1.0pt30%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be a significant advancement in frontier AI model architecture by end of year 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 73% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will there be a significant advancement in frontier AI model architecture by end of year 2026? resolve?
- Will there be a significant advancement in frontier AI model architecture by end of year 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will there be a significant advancement in frontier AI model architecture by end of year 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Follow-on from https://manifold.markets/Jasonb/will-a-gpt4-level-efficient-hrm-bas, since I'm interested in the possibility (or impossibility) of architectural innovations more broadly.