Before 2027, will a frontier AI model achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 5%?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Before 2027, will a frontier AI model achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 5%??

Manifold Markets prices No at 83.2% as of October 26, 2026.

When does Before 2027, will a frontier AI model achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 5%? resolve?

Before 2027, will a frontier AI model achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 5%? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.

How is Before 2027, will a frontier AI model achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 5%? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves according to this leaderboard: https://artificialanalysis.ai/?omniscience=omniscience-hallucination-rate.

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POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,+12.0pt94%
• December 15,+11.0pt92%
• November 30,+31.0pt90%

+15 more outcomes

Total Vol

$5.9M

24h Vol

$341.5K

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 202796.5%
• Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt95%
• Before Jan 1, 2027-1.0pt93.5%

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Anthropic+1.0pt55.1%
• Google36.7%
• OpenAI-0.7pt5.1%

+12 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google+0.7pt89.7%
• Anthropic+0.3pt10.3%
• Alibaba+0.1pt0%

+18 more outcomes

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+3.2pt58.5%
• Gemini-0.7pt31.1%
• ChatGPT-0.2pt

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T-5.0pt29.4%
• $2.0–$2.25T+3.3pt22.6%
• $1.5–$1.75T+0.8pt17.6%

+7 more outcomes

• GPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?
• OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
• What will Anthropic's public ticker be?
• Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
• Best AI this week
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
• In which month will Anthropic IPO?
• Best AI in Oct 2026?
• Anthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?