Will an LLM Built on a State Space Model Architecture Have Been SOTA at any Point before EOY 2027? [READ DESCRIPTION]

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will an LLM Built on a State Space Model Architecture Have Been SOTA at any Point before EOY 2027? [READ DESCRIPTION]?

Manifold Markets prices No at 61.3% as of October 26, 2026.

When does Will an LLM Built on a State Space Model Architecture Have Been SOTA at any Point before EOY 2027? [READ DESCRIPTION] resolve?

Will an LLM Built on a State Space Model Architecture Have Been SOTA at any Point before EOY 2027? [READ DESCRIPTION] is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.

How is Will an LLM Built on a State Space Model Architecture Have Been SOTA at any Point before EOY 2027? [READ DESCRIPTION] settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I don't mean "achieves SOTA on one benchmark", or "is the best FOSS model", I mean "is the equivalent of what GPT-4 is right now".

Use this market in code or an AI agent

Free JSON for this market, no API key needed:

AI agents: call pm_data_event on the CoinRithm MCP server:

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,+10.0pt94%
• December 15,+10.5pt93%
• November 30,+29.5pt89%

+15 more outcomes

Total Vol

$5.9M

24h Vol

$350.7K

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Feb 1, 2027+8.0pt95.5%
• Before Apr 1, 2027+3.0pt95.5%
• Before Mar 1, 2027+5.0pt

KALSHI

What will JD Vance say during his rally in Kansas?

• America First+61.0pt99.5%
• Working Class / Middle Class+39.0pt99.5%
• Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime+21.0pt

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T+1.5pt29.5%
• $2.0–$2.25T+3.6pt22.9%
• $1.5–$1.75T-3.0pt16.2%

+7 more outcomes

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+4.1pt59.6%
• Gemini+0.1pt30.3%
• ChatGPT-0.6pt

POLYMARKET

OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?

• 2027-9.5pt46%
• 2026-1.8pt13%

+1 more outcomes

Total Vol

$1.1M

24h Vol

$70.7K

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