Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 4:02 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 89.3%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleMay 4, 26, 2:50 AM UTCJan 2, 30, 3:48 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to "Yes" if Sam Altman is incarcerated in a correctional facility due to a criminal conviction by the resolution date. "Incarcerated" is defined as being held in a jail or prison following a sentence or remand.
- If he is not imprisoned, or if charges are dismissed, dropped, or result in a non-custodial sentence (such as probation or fines only), the market resolves to "No."
- Reliable reporting from major news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, Bloomberg, The New York Times) confirming the imprisonment will serve as the source of truth for resolution.
- Sam Altman is the CEO of OpenAI.
- This market tracks public information regarding his legal status.
