Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBefore 2031 87.7%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
10
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleMar 17, 24, 5:06 PM UTCJan 2, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
[image]96% -> 0% -> 80% -> 5% -> 95%
- If anything as bad happens on a pretty liquid market, where the probability jumps this much from similar extremes over many days, all remaining options resolve YES.
- If it hasn't happened by an option's date, resolves NO for that option.
- If ambiguous, it will resolve according to the judgment of a small group of mods, or similar.
- Detailed criteria: (Up to change before the end of march) - 70%+ swings - 4+ times - The swings' high and low points are quantified using the most extreme average over 3 hours.
- If from 1 to 4 pm it's at 74% on avg, and then from 4 to 8pm it's at 76% on avg, and then it crashes to 1%, it counts as the high being 76%. - the high and low points of the swings must get 5+ traders to count, non-withstanding obvious market manipulation of this market. - the market must have a total of 100+ traders at the end of the swings - the market's swinging option must have at least 1000M in liquidity
