Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.6%
Forecasters
31
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMar 31, 26, 9:54 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
Resolves YES iff the ABS reports negative real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted, chain volume, q/q, catalogue 5206.0) for two consecutive quarters in 2026 (Q1+Q2 or Q2+Q3 or Q3+Q4).
- Only the value for each quarter at its initial release counts for this market.
- Subsequent revisions do not.
- Exactly 0.0% is not negative.
Open markets
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt78.4%
- No change20.6%
- 50+ bps increase-0.2pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $140.1M
- 24h Vol
- $5.6M
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Total Vol
- $3.4M
- 24h Vol
- $11K
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -9.0% of GDP-6.0pt92%
- Above -8.5% of GDP-8.0pt85%
- Above -8.0% of GDP65%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $35.6K
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt90%
- Above -5.0% of GDP+2.0pt83%
- Above -4.5% of GDP65%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $50.1K
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No80%
- Yes-2.0pt20%
- Total Vol
- $401.5K
- 24h Vol
- $7.6K
KALSHIWisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026
- Above 447,500 jobs96%
- Above 450,000 jobs+1.0pt95%
- Above 452,500 jobs+9.0pt93%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $126.9K
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- CPI in September
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- Unemployment in September
- GDP growth in 2026
- US real GDP growth in 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- Will the US Unemployment Rate exceed 4% in September 2026?
- Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?
- US economic state at the end of 2026?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Recession in Australia in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 90% as of September 13, 2026.
- When does Recession in Australia in 2026? resolve?
- Recession in Australia in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Recession in Australia in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES iff the ABS reports negative real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted, chain volume, q/q, catalogue 5206.0) for two consecutive quarters in 2026 (Q1+Q2 or Q2+Q3 or Q3+Q4).