What are the current odds for NZ election: Labour v National, Who gets higher % of Party List Vote?

Manifold Markets prices National at 53% as of October 23, 2026.

NZ election: Labour v National, Who gets higher % of Party List Vote

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

National 53%

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

+3.0 pts

Market data

Updated 10 hours ago

Stale

Oct 18, 26, 8:32 AM UTCDec 19, 26, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.

New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.
This market will resolve to “Labour” if the Labour Party receives a higher percentage of valid party list votes than the National Party in this election.
This market will resolve to “National” if the National Party receives a higher percentage of valid party list votes than the Labour Party in this election.
Percentages of valid party list votes received by the Labour Party and the National Party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each party receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election.
This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Māori electorate.